4 comments Non Favre Conference Preview

Before you check this out, check out Ben's awesome AFC peek.

I have to say this before I begin, I want it on record - Oakland, 11-5 this year, they are my super sleeper. I don't really have one here so I need that out there for bragging rights. It'll be all mysterious and shit now as to why because I have NFC stuff to talk about.

OK, so I haven't gone to the trouble of measuring these predicted records out, as we know I will be wrong in 90% of cases and it's just a ballpark figure. A barometer if you will, of how these teams will perform.

NFC EAST (vs AFC North, vs NFC West)

Dallas Cowboys

Last year: 13-3, general feeling of warm and fuzzy Romo-ness before being flummoxed by a pedestrian Giants secondary in a generally unacceptable performance. Dallas also choked to the tune of 11 stupid penalties. It was their sixth straight postseason loss. It was the first time an NFC #1 seed had lost its first game since 1990 and completed a 1-3 record in the teams final four games, a span where they averaged 12.3ppg. However, sports is littered with teams who performed the "year after the year" and the Cowboys have retooled and look, on paper, even more dominant in the NFC.

Changes: RB Julius Jones has been banished to Seattle after RB Marion Barber finished with team leading rushing yards in seven of the teams last eight games (including a season high 129 yards in the lone playoff appearance) and it's hard to see that making much of a difference in the running game. Barber is a beast with relatively fresh legs running behind a monster sized offensive line. The Dallas offense is likely to be more lateral this year and maybe more creative too - Barber is far more versatile than Jones and getting him more touches can only be positive. After all, Romo is as unsackable and mobile as they come, although Dallas' receiving talent is not as deep as previous seasons - the last eight games of last year, WR Terrell Owens and TE Jason Witten grabbed 61% of passes thrown by Romo.

Elsewhere, the defense has been bulked up by the savvy, veteran presence of MLB Zach Thomas and the not savvy, idiot presence of CB Pacman Jones. It gives the team an amazing defense on paper that is probably the most talented in the entire NFL. Last year the unit underachieved and never got settled, particulary in the secondary with nagging injuries to star CB Terence Newman making him only an occasional starter. It's a secondary no one will enjoy throwing into, and will allow SS Roy Williams to play nice and close to the line and OLB DeMarcus Ware full license to be the total maniac he is rushing at QB's (#2 in the NFC last season). This team probably overachieved in offense last year, and regressed rather dramatically at just the wrong time, but the defense has the ability to be overwhelming, especially against the pass.

Schedule: This is not an easy schedule, as one would predict from a first place finishing team, but it does finish well, with four of the last six at home, only two divisional games and what should be walk up wins against San Fran, Baltimore and possibly even Seattle, all at home. The relatively tough first half also has a three game window which throws Cincy and road games against Arizona and St.Louis. All seems eminantly winnable.

Prediction: 12-4, it does seem to be a high mark, this doesn't look to be a thirteen or fourteen win team. Dallas has alternated between being laughably overrated and almost weirdly taken for granted (last year...reminded me of how Indy are perceived most seasons, as yawn inducingly predictable). Wade Phillips' "aw schucks, I'm not a fancy big city lawyer" demeanour does worry me a little bit, as does the prospect of Pacman being suspended, out of shape or totally fucking insane, and Newman being useless after the injury, but at the end of the day there is a lot, a lot of talent on this team, they should be the best in the NFC once more.

Washington Redskins

Last year: The ethnic slurs went 9-7 last year, and Sean Taylor incidents notwithstanding, had to consider the season a pleasant surprise. QB Jason Campbell was solid in all aspects and posted 300+ yard games in Dallas and Tampa in a very impressive display before his season ending injury. Washington were close to dominating at the end of last season, beating playoff hopefuls Minnesota and the Giants and Dallas all by eleven points or more, all without Campbell and twice on the road. RB Clinton Portis struggled visibly behind an injury riddled line and posted his worst YPC since 2004, something mirrored in alternate back RB Ladell Betts' numbers. Throwing in the tragedy of Sean Taylor and it is easy to see things going a lot better in 2008.

Changes: Eddy Curry hopeful WR Brandon Lloyd was given his walking papers, and DE Jason Taylor and OG Pete Kendall come in to beef up both lines substantially. The offensive line in general has a lot more depth this year with OT Jason Fabini coming in and with OG Samuels and run blocking specialist OT Jansen healthy, roaring and ready to fire, the running game, which needs to be the staple of the offense, should return to form. I believe in Jason Campbell, he seems very well rounded, plays within himself and is a good decision maker for the experience he has, his style of play should suit this team perfectly. The addition of Taylor strengthens an improved pass rushing team. Washington were dead last in sacks two years ago and improved to 16th last year. Taylor may be old, but he can only help. A good pass rush, and another year in the offense for do-it-all MLB London Baker-Fletcher and SS LaRon Landry should make this defense on the brink of elite. A good running game and game changing defense can take you far in the NFC.

Schedule: If they can survive through October 5 at say, 3-2 or even 2-3, the team should be very well placed to make a playoff run. After that time, their road dates are at Detroit, Seattle, Baltimore, Cincinnati and San Francisco, teams that went 34-45 last season, all but Seattle seem very much there for the taking. If they can survive the opening five game gauntlet at 2-3, they have games at home against St.Louis and Cleveland to recover before they go to the bye and have a chance to catch their breath. If they can enter the bye at 6-6, this team is going to the playoffs.

Prediction: 10-6. It was a minor miracle the 'Skins won 9 games last year, considering three of the four conference finalists were on their schedule as well as Tampa and Arizona, two of the significant improvers last year, literally all of their wideouts decided they didn't care (Jesus, how many WR busts can one team go through?) - WR Shaun McDonald had 150 more receiving yards than WR Santana Moss, and he started as Detroit's fourth option and yeah, their best player was fucking killed. By the way, Santana Moss had three, count them, three, touchdowns last year, and he just is a way better player than that. Jason Campbell will be better, Clinton Portis, completely free of injury this time also - better. Schedule is easier, O-Line is deeper and healthier, division is weaker. Did you know, aside from the Patriot's game, Washington did not lose by more than eight points all season? Did you know they were 4-4 on the road despite playing four division winners and the Superbowl champs away from Washington? Did you know they were awesome? Well now you do.

New York Giants

Last year: The very definition of aberration, the G-Men took out the Superbowl, if you didn't notice. Going 10-6 into the playoffs, New York knocked off Tampa, Dallas, Green Bay and New England by a combined twenty points saving the sporting world from the unholy trinity of the Celts, Pats and Sox that would have nasal accents to roar so loudly, they would burst the eardrums of all humanity. New York did it with the greatest collection of smoke, mirrors, duct tape and band aids ever seen, with starting CB's of a combined 65 years, a QB who was harrassed and abused to the point of complete paralysis, a #1 wide receiver with a broken ankle, the worst TD year from their All-Pro TE in four years and a collection of three RB, castoffs them all. I think RB Brandon Jacobs centre of gravity is just below his chin actually. Anyway, the win had Giants fans disingenuously claiming "well, the Pats may have been a chance if they had Justin Tuck". Mmm...quite.

Changes: No DE Michael Strahan chewing with his mouth open and both disgusting and intimidating reporters. Oh yes, this is a face for television. Kind of a big deal for a team who's only significant player in the back seven is MLB Antonio Pierce. It's a miracle the Giants won the Superbowl on the strength of a pure pass rush, and nothing more. The Giants were actually in the bottom half (#17) of the NFL in scoring defense and despite the rush only 11th in passing defense. In fact, if you take it by YPA, they dropped to 18th. For all the talk of how strong New York was in the "engine room", they were 25th in the NFL in the often worshipped stat of give/takeaways with a hideous -9. They could neither protect their QB from bad decisions, nor force nearly as many from opponents as one might have thought. Frankly, the Giants were lucky to be even in the playoffs, due to a chokarama from Minny losing their last two games when the spot seemed all but theirs. Minus a pass rusher, the only surefire aspect of their entire team, and with SS Sammy Knight their only "significant" addition (making their secondary, already bad, just a bunch of cranky old men), it is hard to see the Giants getting better.

Oh, and they lost arguably the best receiving TE not in San Diego.

Schedule: The first three games are big, Washington and the Bengals and a game in the dome at St.Louis, all seem winnable. The Washington opener (and also an NFL season opener) holds disproportionate importance (try saying that five times fast). An early November burst sees them visiting Pennsylvania twice and Dallas on their home field, which will be tough, but this is a very workable schedule, but they do play the final thirteen games in a row. There will be no excuses here.

Prediction: 7-9 and could be worse. There is essentially no room for improvement and you can just see the articles if New York comes out 1-2 in the easiest section of their schedule, QB Eli Manning's masculinity will again be called into question, Michael Strahan and Tiki Barber will be experiencing a level of schadenfraude most of us can only fantasise about one day experiencing and WR Plaxico Burress will just collapse from sheer exhaustion. A word on Burress - that was an amazing display last year, playing on an essentially broken ankle and fighting through was gusty as fuck. I saw him make so many huge catches last year. It's total anecdotalness that we normally make fun of here, but I thought he was the MVP of the NFC last year, he was truly amazing, without him, they were a 6 win team, no fooling. Anyway, I can't see him lasting this year, I can't see the names of Jacobs, Ward and Droughns scaring anyone, I can't see that secondary performing and considering the exceptional secondaries Eli will be throwing to in the NFC East I just seem a post coital slump happening here and truly feel the record could be much worse than this.

Philadelphia Eagles

Last year: It was almost depressing to see Philadelphia just accept their fate of being mediocre so readily last year. They could barely muster the energy to give a traditional McNabb boo the poor little tykes. The 8-8 record was flattering, the team winning a meaningless final brace of three games (albeit against Dallas, New Orleans and Buffalo, two on the road). Philly scored in excess of 17 just six times last season and beat only Buffalo, Miami and Detroit at home. Despite finishing 6th in total offense, the Eagles were 17th in scoring offense. In fact, without a 56 point, 536 yard binge against Detroit, the Eagles might have been one of the worst offensive teams in the NFL last year and it was this area that held them back as their run defense, purely Denver Broncosesque awful in 2006-2007 rebounded with the addition of OLB Takeo Spikes (8th in YPC) improved markedly, up twenty spots. This all despite RB Brian Westbrook turning heads, especially in the first half of the season, and carrying the team for large stretches (he was first in the NFL in yards from scrimmage). Scathing attention was given to the poor play of the WR corps and pedestrian performance of an offensive line that once allowed DE Osi Umenyiora to have seven sacks. You have to have some pride...the kid never had a chance! *holding a dead McNabb's head in his lap, crying*

Changes: I think it's over for QB Donovan McNabb kids. The Philly fans have smelled blood and are lethargically going in for the kill. I find it hard to believe, watching the Eagles last year, anyone has any faith in that offense or Brian Westbrook's ability to play through another season without coming out of it with his bones turned to sawdust. More importantly, Philly did nothing to upgrade an offensive line simply incapable of protecting it's QB. Only the Jets, Detroit, Kansas City and San Francisco conceded more sacks than Philadelphia. The combined record of those teams was 20-44. Makes you think.

Or does it?

Accoding to Eagles management, the best way to solve a QB protection issue and consolidate a still iffy run defense for a team that blitzes approximately 126% of downs, is to add a CB. Naturally! CB Asante Samuel's presence means CB Lito Sheppard might not be on the field for a significant number of downs. Sheppard might be the best pure ballhawk in the NFL, and when teams realise they only need two receivers and they can run on a defense without both DE Jevon Kearse (who's career has essentially been ended by a horrific injury) and run stopper Spikes (admittedly well into the latter half of his career), it's hard to see how Philadelphia will be getting bang for it's buck with FS Brian Dawkins, CB Sheldon Brown and Samuel being dimensions ahead of the offense. I mean Christ, if you're not going to protect the guy, at least get him a decent fucking receiver, he can't throw to Westbrook EVERY down and seeing as the playbook doesn't actually contain running plays, this is a problem. Sometimes it's like the Eagles, on both offense and defense, don't actually recognise you can run the ball. All this and OG Winston Justice gets to walk freely despite essentially being an accomplice to Umenyiora for attempted murder. What a world.

Schedule: Starts hard, ends hard, with a rich, nougat centre. There is a stretch of two months, including a bye, where they only play three games against teams over .500, and two of those are at home. They also draw Atlanta by virtue of their position last year, a team who will be by far the worst team in the NFC without question and maybe the worst in the NFL, an automatic win. Their final four games scream 1-3, @Giants, Cleveland, @Washington, Dallas and they open at Dallas and at home against Pittsburgh, a game where much of their home field advantage will be lost. Their home schedule reads tougher than their road schedule, and they just can't expect to repeat 5-3 on the road again.

Prediction: Dire. 6-10. They are just a very bad offensive team. They were terrible in the red zone last year and little figures to change. Defensively, there is nothing on paper to suggest they will be able to stop the run at all, and while their secondary might be the best in the league, exactly how much will it be able to help them when their offense cannot keep them on the field? I truly cannot see them beating Washington or Dallas this year and I put the chances of a McNabb season ending injury at about 75%, if he and Westbrook go down, the Eagles may not ever see a first down.

NFC NORTH (vs AFC South, vs NFC South)

Minnesota Vikings

Last year: Extra-terrestrial RB Adrian Peterson just destroyed this league, making the most amazing debut in any sport since LeBron James. He ran for 296 yards against San Diego. Two hundred and ninety-six yards. Two hundred and ninety-six yards. Two hundred and ninety six yards. He was arguably more impressive a few weeks earlier racking up 224 against a still good (see below) Chicago defense. He rushed for 124 yards in the Pro Bowl, and finished second in the NFL in rushing despite splitting time with RB Chester Taylor and missing two games. The team in general turned around a 3-6 start to finish a whisker out of the playoffs at 8-8, losing two games in OT during the season. Even oft criticised QB Tavaris Jackson who has the enviable talent of being fast and throwing the ball a long way, the only categories scouts seem to follow (instead of throwing to...you know, actual receivers) got in on the action. Jackson came in after a fresh fellating from scouts, but had lost his job to QB Brooks Bollinger (career 8TDs, 46 sacks...a sack for every 4.5 completions) and 35 year old QB Kelly Holcomb (best season of 10TDs and 8INTs...in ten games). In the final five games, Tavaris suddenly looked confident, posting his first three 200+ yardage games and actually demonstrating competance. - the top six ratings from last year were all in the second half.

The Vikings oozed potential for this year with a ridiculous run defense. Carrying on the legacy of 2006, the NFL's best DT tandem held opponents to 74.1 yards rushing, 3.1 per carry, well ahead of the rest of the league. It marked the second year in a row they held the crown. Unfortunately the legacy continued with the pass, finishing equal last in passing D and 25th in sacks, although only twelfth in YPA and weirdly, 4th in passing TDs and 4th in passer rating against. Maybe only a slight tweak was necessary for the team to take off...

Changes: No one had more sacks in the NFL last year than DE Jared Allen, despite missing two games, and led all DE with passes deflected (10). Minnesota got him and it makes their defensive line just fucking insane. SS Darren Sharper may be old and CB Antoine Winfield small, but the Vikes also added underrated FS Michael Boulware, to bolster their pass defense which may not have been nearly as bad as advertised anyway. It goes without saying that All Day will get more touches this year and although he is an injury waiting to happen, he remains behind a left side of the line that is just as ridiculous as their defensive front four.

The much maligned pass offense also doesn't look quite so bad. WR Sidney Rice has pure speed very few defensive backs can keep up with, and WR Bobby Wade is a solid slot option. That leaves Chicago recruit WR Bernard Berrian, with his electrifying speed and ability to get open downfield, on the other side. Berrian has eleven TD in his last two seasons in an offense which could only dream of a back like Peterson. The last two years, the entire Minnesota team had 25.

Schedule: Playing the AFC South was never going to be fun and to make matters worse, Minny go through five game stretch from the middle of November to Christmas where they play only once at home. Their opening three games, despite two being at home, offer little respite, with a trip to Lambeau along with Indy on the fast turf, which suits Peyton and the boys much moreso than the team of purple headed warriors (clever huh? I thought it was clever anyway...:( ). It places a lot of pressure on a team who wears the dreaded monikor passed on from San Francisco last year and Arizona a year before that - the universal sleeper. Minnesota has one bright spot on the schedule, through October and early November, they play Detroit, Houston and Green Bay in the Dome and Chicago at Soldier Field. The brace is split by the bye. They must go 4-0 here to be in a position to make the playoffs.

Prediction: 11-5. Mark me up, I'm buying. The schedule is a horror show and they will have to deal with a great deal of expectation, but despite the stars being kids, they have plenty of veteran leadership and are in a very flawed conference. If they can go 5-1 in division and school the iffy NFC South, both of which seem doable, there is no reason this team cannot win ten or even eleven games. I love the offseason, they lost no one of note, while the only other major addition in the division was the Lions adding CB Leigh Bodden, only the Saints made more of a splash. I'm putting my neck out that the best possible scenario happens and the Vikings make headlines for the right reasons.

Green Bay Packers

Last year: Contrary to what the sports media would have you believe, the story of their shock 13-3 season was not Favre, but everyone else. DE Aaron Kampman became perhaps the most complete DE in the league. I must have read three columns on CB Al Harris a being underapprieciated next to CB Charles Woodson. MLB Nick Barnett became this years FS Kerry Rhodes. And it all combined to see the team finish sixth in scoring defense and third in third down defense. In truth, Green Bay was untouchable for much of last year, having the best points differential in the NFC, starting 10-1, beating Oakland by 21, Detroit by 11 and 21, the Rams by 19, Carolina by 14, the Vikings by 34, Kansas City by 11 and the Giants by 21. However their second meeting with the G-Men was their downfall. Ultimately it was their reliance on the pass that proved their undoing, with Favre going 19/35 with two turnovers, including the decisive play, and mid-season phenom RB Ryan Grant struggling with just 29 yards on the ground. Green Bay were sixth in pass attempts and sixth last in rushing attempts, the Giants with their pass rush, were a terrible matchup.

Changes: Doesn't exactly sound like the kind of team that would be welcoming losing a TE, WR and of course, Favre. But that's exactly what happened. "Fun loving" WR Koren Robinson has moved on, as has has-been-never-was TE Bubba Franks, but both take away targets from a team built around the pass (even the offensive line) and without anything close to a proven running back. Hell, even teams with established running backs like Cadillac Williams, Shaun Alexander, Thomas Jones et al are not sure of themselves. It's with a strong streak of cynicism that I believe the running game, mediocre at best last year, will be even better. Without the threat of Favre, it could actually be worse. WR Donald Driver will also be 34 by the end of the season and despite 14 TDs in 15 games, WR Greg Jennings finished 30th in receiving yards and has not proven he can run those "out" routes that a young QB is likely to need.

And about that quarterback, QB Aaron Rodgers is already a fucking champ in my book for what he had to put up with, but this is going to be tough. People are retarded, especially in Wisconsin, not known for it's literary giants or dignified culture. More for putting foam cheese on their heads. He will receive hostility. He does have big shoes to fill. He does not have a decent running back (not sold at all on Grant) and he does have a 13-3 record to follow up on. Disaster might be a bit over the top, but it does smell of concern.

Schedule: The opening half of the schedule is brutal, so Rodgers better be ready. Check this out, on the road to two division winners in Tampa and Seattle, Dallas and Indy at home with consecutive roadies to Tennessee and Minnesota. They need at least three wins here to be in the hunt (yes, even in the NFC), and only Atlanta, at home on October 5, seems like a lock. If they, and by they I really mean Rodgers and the pounding he'll take from the press, can get three wings they are a chance to finish with a bang and eve make noise in the playoffs. Of their final seven games, only @New Orleans and @Jacksonville seem out of reach. Frankly, 8-8 would give them a shot at a wildcard.

Prediction: But it's not gonna happen. 7-9. Look, I can't say whether if Favre had not been a douche (it's like asking Michaelangelo not to paint, isn't it?) this offseason, if I'd think more of Green Bay's chances. I just don't know. But I do know that too much shit has gone down here, the fans aren't behind the team, and they are young, youngest in the league in fact, and that opening schedule just dooms any hope they had of burying this. At BEST they will be 4-5 (the next easiest game after that Atlanta contest is probably @Tampa Bay...not kidding), and ESPN will have no time for your "strength of schedules" or "adjustment periods". They only have eyes for Favre, and God help Rodgers if the Jets (predicted sleeper by some) have a hot start. God help us all.

Chicago Bears

Last year: There's just literally nothing positive to write here. Well, maybe that they finished 7-9, because it felt like they went like 4-12 they were that bad. Watching them play was the football equivalent of a Cleveland Steamer, and every moment KR Devin Hester did not have the ball was like getting your eyes gouged out with a hot poker...laced with vinegar...made by Satan...and the poker was actually a penis. If you are squeamish, look away now. Chicago were 27th in total offense, 28th in INTs, 24th in sacks, 27th in QB rating, last in YPC, 29th in third down offense. It just goes on and on. In fact, were it not for San Francisco emulating Oakland the year before, Chicago would have been easily the worst offensive team in football. And as Baltimore, Oakland, and so many others have shown, you have to move the chains before you even get to defense or special teams. Indy two years ago demonstrated that for us in another way.

The disgusting offensive display made the road weary defense look much worse than it was. It was a tired habit last year, me watching Sportscenter and seeing the Chicago defense dragged through the mud as though like, nine defensive superstars suddenly got terrible. My mouth hung open on a lot of NFL shows. It was clearly that they were too tired and on the field too much. The men are there, OLB Lance Briggs, MLB Brian Urlacher (who remains the best pass defending linebacker in the game, DT Tommie Harris, CB Nathan Vasher, SS Mike Brown and so on. In fact, in comparison with 2006, these guys were pretty healthy, the defense had better personell, there was just only so much they could do. Chicago's defensive numbers look bad until you realise nearly every offensive stat is based on how many plays the offense gets. If you look at counting number defensive stats, you see what I mean. Chicago were sixth in sacks, second in third down defense and only 1.3 worse than pass D darlings New York Giants in opponent QB rating. This defense can still play.

Changes: They lost like six fucking starters, I'm not even kidding. Gone are DT Darwin Walker, WR Muhsin Muhammad, WR Bernard Berrian, OG Ruben Brown, SS Adam Archuleta, RB Cedric Benson. Now I get it, pretty much all of these guys were terrible (not buying the Ruben Brown thing though, like the defense, that offensive line is fine, in this case it IS the skill players, we always knew Rex was terrible, and Benson is just worthless), but they've been replaced with nothng. WR Brandon Lloyd is the only major recruit and despite being the owner of this, rather hilarious website, has these stats last season; 2 receptions, 14 yards. In fact he has 25 receptions in the last two years. Bodes well.

Then there's the QB position, and the combustable, filthy, piece of shit QB Rex Grossman (never, ever, ever, ever bet on Rex Grossman) or QB Kyle Orton, who would probably laugh and agree with you if you said "you inspire absolutely no faith in anyone". The words "done before we even start" must have never sounded truer for poor Lovie Smith.

Schedule: This might be the easiest schedule of all NFC North teams. They do suffer a tough three game stretch on the road (@Green Bay, @St.Louis, @Minnesota, certainly should sneak one at least), but their road schedule in general is very, very workable. Their road games are Carolina (ask Ben about this, they are worse than a .500 team at home in their history), Detroit, Atlanta, Green Bay, St.Louis, Minnesota and Houston. That Houston game comes after three straight home games (something which happens twice this year) to close the season. If you can't make the playoffs with that schedule, there's something wrong with you.

Prediction: There's something wrong with the Bears. It's a dick and rhymes with Tex Postman. Who the fuck names their kid "Rex" anyway? Buy a goddamn dog. I feel ridiculous just writing it. Anyway, 7-9, and that's only due to the easy schedule and Superman back their fielding punts and changing games. It's pretty sad that Hester is their best chance of scoring. They can still create turnovers and there are enough inexperienced quarterbacks on their schedule for them to get them, they will win more than I think their roster dictates they should, there's just no one on this team you trust with the ball in their hands, it's just downright sad, at least Atlanta have Michael Turner.

Detroit Lions

Last year: In the wake of QB Jon Kitna's and WR Roy Williams insane and delusional predictions of thirteen wins, the Lions actually looked like they'd shock the world. Opening 6-2, I remember I actually put down some money on them in the last of their wins, against Denver, a 44-7 spanking. I did that mainly due to them finding some semblance of a running game. It still wasn't good, but RB Kevin Jones put up three of their top four rushing performances to that point. However, after that when the going got rough, the Lions went like pussycats, going a ridiculous 1-7 down the stretch. It kicked off with a quintessentially hopeless -18 yards rushing ahgainst Arizona - the worst in a single game since 1947.

Rushing was a familiar problem for the Lions. They were second last in the NFL in rushing, and despite how infrequently they gave the ball to their running back of choice that day, they tied the NFL lead with 31 fumbles. They were also dead last in total defense. Even during their 6-2 run they were only +15 in points. They finished -108.

Changes: No Mike Martz running the offense any more. Frankly I feel this may be a good thing, as the run game just withered on the vine, under the watchful eye of Detroit supervillan Matt Millen. No effort was made to improve the running back position or the offensive line. WR Mike Williams was drafted in 2005 in preference to OT Jamaal Brown and OG Logan Mankins. In 2003 the took WR Charles Rogers to RB Willis McGahee and RB Larry Johnson. Anyway, the passing game is fine, in almost anyone's hands. Blind Freddy could throw to WR Calvin Johnson and WR Roy Williams successfully. No, the changes necessary lie in another area. An area I call "everything else". And to make matters worse, they traded away one of the best pass rushing DT's in the game in Shaun Rogers. Thankfully he has been replaced by CB Leigh Bodden of the 24th ranked pass defense Cleveland, so - problem solved. Pass protection you say? When the Lions weren't running for -18 yards, they were getting sacked, fifty four times, second worst in the league. But it's ok because their QB is 36 years old and they lost their backup. This is just depressing.

Schedule: Let's see, they can beat Atlanta, although that game is away, so it's not a given, as bad as the Falcons are. The whole AFC South is full of great pass defenses; DE Mario Williams is waiting in Houston, Jacksonville's strentgh is on the defensive line (DE Paul Spicer was one of the most improved players in the NFL last year IMO) and a great secondary, Tennessee also makes their living harrassing quarterbacks (tenth on pass defense despite no one running on them at all) and Indianapolis has one of the best coached secondaries in the league despite the lack of names (FS Antoine Bethea may have given Spicer some competition) and even a downgraded DE Dwight Freeney means problems. I give them none of those games, particulary with the Houston game on the road. I see maybe 1-5 in the division, Green Bay is a bad matchup for them with their exceptional secondary and they may split the games with Chicago. I think San Francisco will be improved, and particulary travelling, I don't think so. There's no way Washington loses to them. I'll give them 2-2 against the NFC South. Does it matter how the games are structured? They are terrible.

Prediction: As mentioned, 3-13. This is a bad team that got slightly worse in the offseason. I believe their second half is far more indicative of their performance than the first half and their -105 point differential tells us basement dwelling, nerdy, stat geeks, that this team is way worse than 7-9. I choose to see that glass as half empty, they do look unfixable right now.

NFC SOUTH (vs AFC West, vs NFC North)

New Orleans Saints

Last year: The very definition of inexplicable and truly inconsistent (I know, that word is overused in sports, but in this case it really does fit). The team opened 0-4, which seems understandable in hindsight, playing Indy and Tampa on the road, Tennessee and then a division game against Carolina (actually an awesome road team). They then reeled off four straight, the offense that couldn't clear fourteen streaked away to 121 points in those games (including 41 against an exceptional Jags defense. 445 yards passing in that one). Unforgivably losing, and losing badly to Houston and St.Louis and their season was all but over. They finished 7-9. The second half of the season from QB Drew Brees was back to his best, but injuries to RB Reggie Bush and RB Deuce McAlister essentially put paid to their playoff dreams, it was too steep a hill to climb.

Bush, media darling and defended by the world's sportswriter's on that fateful draft night, was brought into question, especially for his toughness and ability to run between the tackles. In fact, I remember watching PTI and hearing Wilbon say "no one thought he'd be an every down back." Exqueeze me? Baking powder? Didn't I hear "next Gail Sayers"? Didn't I hear everyone who had a keyboard and some semblance of computer wiring tell me how retarded the Texans were not taking this "sure thing" prospect? There's some serious disingenuity coming out of the media regarding Bush, as they are wrong both in labelling him a bust prematurely and pussying out of their previous calls. Anyway, it wasn't Bush's fault at all really, the injuries, the leagues third worst passing defense (worst on YPA) crippled this teams late playoff run after the incredibly tough opening schedule.

Changes: About that pass defense. Coolest and most humiliating stat of 2007 can be found here. Oh yes, you read that right, and I quote;

Worst Yards per Pass
Jason David, NO: 14.5
Hole in Zone, 11.9

Yes, Jason David is worse than throwing at a hole in the zone.

Changes clearly need to be made and they began here, importing New England (and thus blessed with the anointed "toughness, grit and "Superbowl rings") CB Randall Gay. He's not spectacular, but he can play, and should be a significant starter. You have to think having CB Jason David on the field literally was worth one win alone - seriously, read the analysis, he was unfathomably awful. CB Aaron Glenn is also useful in the nickel and that same report lets CB Mike McKenzie off the hook, he was alright. This secondary might be below average still, but it won't totally kill them, that's all the Saitns are looking for. Continuing the inexplicably bad run, DE Charles Grant went from six sacks and three forced fumbles in 2006 to 2.5 and none in 2007. DE Will Smith went from 10.5 and 3 to 7 and 2. That's a lot less pressure on opposing QB's and seeing as it was the worst season from each, in their careers, it seems reasonable to assume they will rebound. Even if they don't, superb DE Bobby McCray was brought in from Tennessee to spell them. This pass defense should at least be OK.

But there were bigger names than Gay and Glenn. MLB Jonathan Vilma (290 tackles in his last two healthy seasons) and MLB Dan Morgan (probably done, but still a good mind to have out there in what is a really young defensive unit) both ae folded into the mix and should help what was already an exceptional run D. It should be almost impossible to run on the Saints this season. And then there is TE Jeremy Shockey, he of the metaphysically omnipotent ego. Brees was good last year, there's a reason Bush was rated so highly, the running back position is deep, the targets are plentiful, the defense has the tools and motivation to be elite. Let the games begin!

Schedule: Much easier than last year, worth a couple of wins by itself. They might have the easiest set of away games in the NFL; Washington, Denver, Carolina (2-6 at home last season), Atlanta, Kansas City, Tampa, Chicago, Detroit. The opening three games, a divisional battle with Tampa and road dates at Washington and Denver, are by far the toughest. From that point it's hard to see a place they could slip up. San Francisco, Minnesota, Oakland at home along with the Panthers on the road seems a 4-0 stint. Their run home is the definition of powder puff, Atlanta, Chicago and Detroit on the road, and finishing against Carolina.

Prediction: 13-3, it's a high bar to jump over but the talent on this team is immense. I am a huge fan of WR Devery Henderson down the field (23.3ypc in 2006, 20.5 in 2007) and covering Shockey, Bush, maybe McAlister at the same time along with scarily improving WR Marques Colston, they should be unstoppable offensively. The defense should be at least solid, the secondary just has to improve (even utilising holes in zone) and the schedule gets easier. Basically, this is the year after the year for these guys.

Carolina Panthers

Last year: Another dissapointment from the ever looming Panthers. Despite possibly having the best offensive (WR Steve Smith) and defensive (DE Julius Peppers) players on paper in the league, the Panthers looked absolutely, totally, comprehensively average last year. They did suck at the pass (29th), but that was to be expected when QB Jake Delhomme went down, finally ending the debate whether QB David Carr was a victim of his offensive line in Houston or not - he wasn't. Carolina were 14th on the rush, 16th in total defense, and generally below average at stuff like 3rd down, kick/punt returns zzzzzz. There was just very little of note here. The Panthers surprised no one by losing games they shouldn't (home to Atlanta, home to Houston) and in another total non-shock, RB D'Angelo Williams took over the back position, leading the team in rushing for three of the last four weeks. Carolina finished last year 7-9.

Changes: Due to that, RB DeShaun Foster was ushered out of town. As was veteran, concussed out-of-his-fucking-skull MLB Dan Morgan. The aforementioned Carr is on his way gradually out of the league and DE Mike Rucker called it a day. The main addition to the team was the wide receiving corps, WR Muhsin Muhammad is back for another shot, WR DJ Hackett comes in too, and he had a great season for a dude that missed ten games. On the downside he did miss ten games. And that lack of awareness of injuries seems to be the frustrating problem with the offseason of the Panthers. You can get all the wide receivers you want, unless Delhomme is healthy it's not going to matter, and it is my understanding that the recovery from Tommy John surgery for QB's is sketchy at best. It also probably doesn't help mysteriously shedding career long productive O-Lineman like C Justin Hartwig and OG Mike Wahle. Chalk it up to more weird fucking shit. Carr was no prize pig, but there is no proven backup behind Delhomme either, and it's on that busted elbow that any hope of the playoffs rest. However, central to the comeback of the Panthers as a sleeper threat is uber-athelete Peppers getting back to his best. 34.5 sacks in his previous three seasons, fucking 2.5 last year. You tell me.

Schedule: They have to do something about the home record, it's 14-18 over the last four seasons and it's going to have to be 6 or more wins this year, something they haven't done since 2003 for them to make noise. This year they play on the road to Minny, San Diego, Tampa, New Orleans and the Giants and Packers (if you're of the opinion both will be good). Five of their first eight games are at home, along with the bye and you feel that capitalising here would go a long way to ensuring a playoff birth. There doesn't seem to be a pronounced difficult stretch, but they would want their nine wins going into the final two weeks - they are at the Meadowlands and then the Superdome.

Prediction: 8-8. The schedule is kind to them and even without Smith, I see both this division and the NFC North as predominantly worse than the Panthers. This number is based on Delhomme playing in at least 13-14 games, the receiving corps is deep and I think Williams is ready to be a feature back. Perhaps most importantly, John Fox is a good coach, I still believe that deep in my heart, and the Panthers just have to find a way, Peppers' movement back to his average alone should get them one more win. I do not, however, see a playoff appearance in my crystal ball.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Last year: Well how the fuck did they pull that off? They lead the league in pass defense despite their best pass rusher being some guy named DT Greg White, who doesn't even have a position according to ESPN. He was 24th in the NFL with eight sacks. Some other faceless character named SS Jermaine Phillip was their interception leader with 4, 41st in the league. Equal 41st. The secret, apparently, was holding on to the ball - who knew? Tampa had just 20 turnovers last season, behind only Indy and New England, and had 35 takeaways, all of them from nobodies, behind only Indy and the ridiculously flukey season from San Diego (an inhuman 48, this, combined with their special teams was an illusion, mark my words, MARK THEM I SAY!). They lost their marquee RB Cadillac Williams, HIS backup RB Michael Pittman and still won the division.

Changes: Did I mention they won it with 9 games? Losing to Houston, San Francisco and Carolina down the stretch? Seems a little more believable now huh? Look, there's just no way this team gets better this year, they are fucking ancient. WR Joey Galloway - 37. QB Jeff Garcia - 38. OLB Derrick Brooks - 35. CB Ronde Barber - 33. Yes, yes, I know these are just the names, and there are some young guys too, TE Alex Smith, MLB Barrett Ruud et al. But it's not like any of these guys had some amazing season everyone just decided to ignore, yes the system is good and Gruden is a fine, if eccentric, coach, but at some point you've got to have the players, especially offensively. Tampa Bay stayed pretty much put this season, letting their core just grow older, only two years removed from a horrendous 4-12 campaign and with their running game reliant on RB Earnest Graham and RB Warwick Dunn - 33. There's just no reason to believe everything will go their way again, and may I remind you, even when it did, they won only 9 games.

Schedule: This is, unsurprisingly (they finished first after all), the hardest schedule of any team in the NFC South. There is a four game brace (admittedly around the bye) where they play Seattle, @Dallas, @Kansas City (still a tough place to play, even when they are bad) and Minnesota. The rest of the schedule is more or less meh, neither terrible nor a cakewalk, although the start includes dates at Chicago, New Orleans and Denver, as well as the Packers at home, it could provide a few bumps.

Prediction: 6-10. The schedule is toughish, but it's more the fact there's just no reason whatsoever to expect improvement from this team. It's like a less impressive version of the Detroit Pistons the last three years. Everyone praises Joe Dumars but he's just watched his team get slightly worse every year, and people act surprised at this. I said last year that the Pistons were probably less likely to win the title than the fucking Nuggets, WHY would they be better? Why? What possible reason? You can say the same thing about the Bucs, they were lucky last year, had a last placed schedule, in a terrible division and still won only nine games. The Saints beefed up, they have a first place schedule, and their really old roster just got really old +1, oh, and they're biggest offensive threat is probably done for the year already? No way they threaten this division. I didn't love the Panthers at all, I just hate the Bucs this year.

Atlanta Falcons

Last year: 4-12. *raises fist like Kirk in Wrath of Khan, shaking*

VICK!!!

Changes: QB Blah blah blah blah replaces QB dum de dum de dum. Atlanta did one of the most blatent wholesale culls in recent NFL history. They got rid of RB Warwick Dunn, all around back, winner of the sportsmenship trophy and saint-in-waiting. Once that happened you knew all bets were off, they were just going to tank this thing as obviously as possible, anyone could go, and go they did. WR Joe Horn will have to do his little retirement tour somewhere else thank you very much, even TE Alge Crumpler, the one person Vick could hit with some regularity, went. Oh yes, we're at the point to make a very difficult decision with the Falcons. Oh yes, the NFL can keep them alive, but any recognisable aspect of a football team, well it just won't be there. It's at the point of pulling the plug basically, me just writing "they're bad" and be done with it. In keeping with losing everyone who was good on the team, they also traded CB D'Angelo Hall. So it's now MLB Keith Brooking and cutout silhouettes of actual football players. Their second best player is offseason pickup K Jason Elam. Seriously, he's probably their most well known player. The only question is, why the fuck did they bother signing RB Michael Turner?

Schedule: A whole bunch of teams better than them. Their easiest stretch is undoubtedly the start of the year, Lions, @Bucs, Chiefs. If they don't win one of those, this could be the first 0-16 season. Get ready for history Atlanta!

Prediction: 2-14. I'm not even mailing it in. What do you want me to say? I don't know nearly anyone on this team and Atlanta has made every possible effort to stop you caring about them. It sticks the middle finger up at any possible analysis. How long are they gonna milk the "boo hoo, feel sorry for us. No Vick, no chance." Seriously, grow a pair. They are like a pathetic dumpee, it's OVER Atlanta, try and win, make some semblance of an effort, it's a terrible division. Fine, mope, see if I care.

NFC WEST (vs AFC East, vs NFC East)

Seattle Seahawks

Last year: Well it's theirs by default until the division gets some level of competence isn't it? They haven't lost the division since 2003, and have demonstrated remarkable flexibility, winning in a variety of ways. 2007 might have been Holmgren's finest effort with this team, surviving RB Shaun Alexander's alarming career implosion halfway through the season. Really, that should have been all she wrote for the Seahawks, but they scrambled to ten wins and the division crown. Alexander was shut down after the bye week and won six of their next nine, their three losses by a combined nine points, and none at home. In fact, Seattle consolidated their remarkable home field advantage by winning their last six straight at Qwest. This was a good, solid, vindicating season.

It was powered by the defense, which was superb in every respect. Seattle were 10th in YPA against and tied for fourth in INTs. The pass rush was particulary intimidating, finishing fourth in sacks as new buy DE Patrick Kerney finished tops in the NFC with 14.5. OLB Julian Peterson was also dominating with 9.5 of his own and MLB Lofa Tatupu was his typically excellent self. Meanwhile, QB Matt Hasselbeck responded to the pressure of Holmgren's announcement that they would throw, throw and throw some more, wonderfully. It was the ultimate bounce back season, after a 2006 where he had a rating of just 76.0, Hasselbeck threw 28TDs and only 12 picks, with a rating of 91.4. Down the stretch he threw 13TDs and 4INTs, making him as good as any QB outside of Foxborough.

Changes: Seattle had an active offseason, primarily looking to upgrade their running game, a necessary move, and generally can be said to have done a reasonable job. They added not only out-of-favour RB Julius Jones, a proven if unspectacular runner (exactly what Seattle were looking for), but also OG Mike Wahle who brings an excellent reputation as a specialist run blocker. After a terrible 2006, the offensive line rebounded well last year and looks to continue to improve. The three losses can all be rationalised away. TE Jerramy Stevens was a talent and a promising player, but he was not worth the incredible amount of trouble and baggage he brough with him. SS Michael Boulware went to Minnesota, a good player but not irreplacable, and the secondary still looks above average, SS Deon Grant and CB Marcus Trufant (who himself had a bounce back year, after nearly losing his starting job, he picked 7 passes in 2007) remain the standouts. Big footed K Josh Brown has also left town, and he was as valuable a kicker as any in the NFL last year (save K Rob Bironas maybe), but let's face it, kickers are kickers - look at K Adam Viniteiri against San Diego last season. Team still looks in good shape, probably slightly better this year and not having to invent a running game on the fly.

Schedule: The Seahawks have two three game runs that look prime for 6-0 and they come at different parts of the season so they can build momentum for something special. The first is the start of the year, @Buffalo, San Francisco, St.Louis, unfortunately this is followed by the bye and then 13 straight games. The games @Miami, Arizona and Washington also looks quite easy. Yes, they draw New England and Dallas, but this is probably the easiest schedule of last years four division winners in the NFC.

Prediction: I like Seattle this year, they are always under the radar due to their division and their expected solid performance. I think this year edition is probably as good as their Superbowl team, and defensively, only Dallas and Minnesota look their equals in the NFC. I see an 11-5 run, but a 12 win season would not surprise me. They will not have to deal with their best player having some crisis this time. Furthermore, I think they will go deep in the playoffs, NFC title game.

St.Louis Rams

Last year: An unmitagated disaster at 3-13. The Rams were probably the most injury plagued team in the league, and not the iddy-biddy RB Ryan Moats style injuries, serious, relevant injuries. A dozen starters finished on IR, and three starters on the O-Line, including OT Orlando Pace, one of the best in the history of the game, missed basically the whole season. QB Marc Bulger was the victim of that poor offensive line play, sacked a remarkable 37 times in just twelve games, posting a 70.3 QB rating, compared to 88.1 for his career. RB Steven Jackson, God to fantasy football players everywhere with his multi-dimensional talents, played only twelve himself, scoring just five times. This once great offense fell on very hard times.

Defensively, you could almost say the Rams improved, particulary their run defense, so often the cause of an inability to stop the chains. 31st against the run in 2006 and 28th in 2005, the Rams were a more respectable 20th, as DT Adam Carriker came in and made an immediate impact. They were 21st in the pass - not great obviously, but as good as the Rams have been in quite a while, if the offense could stay healthy, this team could have make noise. The offense last year posted five games of ten points or less, at one point in the first half, four of five games they played totalled 19 points. It wasn't pretty.

Changes: Al Saunders comes into the fold as OC, and while I generally think people getting all in a fever over new co-ordinators is a kind of geeky I just can't get jiggy with, it can only help. That said, it may not help early on, being that the playbook gives Tolstoy a run for his money, nor, at least on the face of it will be the fact that the Rams added only K Josh Brown in the offseason, not exactly the kind of radical changes fans may have been demanding, especially when they lost veteran WR Isaac Bruce (who was done anyway). However, think of this, if the Rams simply have even league average injury hassles, it should improve their record by three games on that alone. And despite my lack of interest in college sports, I am led to believe DE Chris Long is, you know, good, and next to DE Leonard Little, DT La'Roi Glover and Carriker, hell, this is a pretty good, atheltic defensive line.

The other line is, on paper solid too, and all are back this year, if he can keep penalties under control, OG Richie Incognito can make spectacular (at least by linemen standards) plays, and the tackle combo of Pace and OT Alex Barron is very strong on paper. Jackson has ended his holdout, making the skill players above average also, especially if Bulger bounces back (a genuine fifty/fifty call). I must admit that Bulger's career is beginning to take a very QB Trent Green look to it. Thankfully the backup is...Trent Green. Look, I can't see KR Dante Hall having such a horrible streak of injuries last year, and their special teams, with Brown, looks fantastic.

Schedule: I admit, I am drawing quite a bow here, and the opening schedule is fucking terrible. They go to Seattle, Philadelphia, Washington and New England and host Dallas and the Giants. If they open 3-4, you'll know they are finishing downhill. Check this out, Arizona, @Jets, @San Francisco, Chicago, Miami, @Arizona, Seattle, San Francisco, @Atlanta. I'm putting it down on them winning seven of those games, yes seven.

Fuck with me!

Prediction: Look, I'll level with you. I made a horrific discovery about halfway through this preview - someone from the NFC West, other than Seattle, was going to the playoffs if I had my way. That set in motion a chain of thoughts, and much whiskey drinking to work out who I was going to put my balls on the chopping block for. I seriously considered both other lame squads but in the end, I'm doubling down on St.Louis. Last year they were my "sleeper" and that turned out so well I'm trying again. The offensive line CAN be good, I swear, Stephen Jackson IS awesome, Marc Bulger CAN be at least an adequate QB, WR Torry Holt IS one of the best all-purpose receivers in the game, TE Randy McMichael CAN catch balls, the D-Line IS underrated and the schedule, taken as a whole, IS workable. The glass is half full, and I can barely watch as I type this; 9-7.

Arizona Cardinals

Last year: One of America's most beige teams saw pretty boy extraordinaire QB Matt Leinart suffer an injury and was not heard of again. Besides, there were...what's louder than whispers? Roars, that's right, roars, that QB Kurt Warner might be better anyway, and the Cards enter the year with muchos confusion under centre, which is a pretty awful place to be when neither player is especially good. That said, the team did have a wonderful passing year, WR Larry Fitzgerald doing his do, finishing fourth in receiving yards and the team was fifth overall. Of course they were 10th in 2006 and fucking first in 2005 and it didn't help them much. WR Anquain Boldin is seeking a trade and frankly, the team looks to be in a bad place entering the 2008 season. The Cardinals were involved in some crazy ones last year, beating the Rams 34-31, the Bengals 35-27, losing to San Francisco 31-37 and Seattle 21-42, New Orleans 24-31 knocking over Atlanta 30-27 and beating St.Louis the second time 48-19.

Think pass D might be an issue?

Changes: Watch this space on the Boldin issue, he seems quite serious and the situation has deteriorated rapidly since the end of last season. Otherwise, the team remains largely unchanged. The O-Line was actually pretty good last season, finishing 8th in sacks allowed despite all the throwing, and RB Edgerrin James was also competant, finishing 7th in rushing in the league. But at 30, and a very old 30, it's hard not to be sceptical. The offense, it could be argued, did not need tampering with, even if James is on his last legs, kinda literally. DT Darnell Dockett had a career year with 9.0 sacks (only six in the three previous years), but to counter, DE Bertrand Berry showed his age, and that was when he was on the field, he has missed 21 games the last three years. Other "meh" years were MLB Karlos Dansby and yes, even Mr. "He's so underrated and I know so much about football because I talk about him at length" SS Adrian Wilson, who suffered through an injury plagued season. CB Roderick Hood, over from Philadelphia, came out of the shadows of his Philly secondary stars to post an impressive season, five INT's with two returned all the way to the house. If it doesn't sound like I'm mentioning changes, it's because there effectively were none of importance, apparently, Arizona is happy with how it looks, very secure team...even if we all think it looks hideous...you don't know them, you don't know them...sit yo ass down.

Schedule: This is probably the most balanced schedule of all the NFC West teams. They manage to avoid blocking up Dallas, New England and Washington together, their bye is snuggled neatly into Week 7, and they have no outstanding blocks full of home or road dates. Yawn inducing, in other words.

Prediction: 8-8. I don't really know what to make of a team that has some good young players, maybe primarily on the defensive side of the ball but looks kind of like a fantasy team. I hate to resort to "I can't quite put my finger on it" rationales, but there's nothing TEAM like here. There's no drive I can see, I see Fitzgerald's fantasy numbers, I see perpetual dissapointment in Leinart, fumbles from Warner, poor coverage from the secondary (I just don't think Adrian Wilson is that good at coverage, I'm sorry, I'm not a philistine, I know he's an awesome tackler, but everyone hates SS Roy Williams...I don't get it!) and generally fun games to watch with very, very little satisfaction after it's all over. They have nothing that makes them dangerous, we know what they are, and they seem comfortable with that. Their coach is one of the more anonymous in the game. I guess it comes down to this, if I have to put my cheese out in the wind there for someone, I would prefer the upside of the Rams than the dull, unsatisfying, empty, 350 yard passing days of Arizona. That's just me.

San Francisco 49ers

Last year: San Francisco had 237.3 yards per game. The next worst, KC, had 276.8. 39.5 yards. If you added 39.5 yards to Kansas City, they'd have had San Diego's offense - who went to the AFC Championship game. Oh, and QB Alex Smith? Former first rounder who was supposed to develop so well under that great quarterback coaching? He took his career totals to 19TDs and 31INTs. Basically, he's a bust already, the Jason David of QB's, a hole in the pocket probably would have been better. He had a 57.1QB rating. They converted 31.4% of their third downs, obviously last. Equal fourth worst with 34 turnovers, despite never having the ball. 5.23YPA, 0.6 worse than second worst - Carolina. Fifty-five sacks. Worst in the game. Between September 16 and November 25, the 49ers NEVER reached the rarified air of 20 points. 5-11 seems generous right?

Changes: Needless to say a makeover was needed, and San Francisco went headlong into the mania of Mike Martz. I'll let the idea of Smith dropping back nine steps and hanging around while the talents of WR Bryant Johnson (who has never caught 50 balls and his longest catch in five seasons isn't even 60 yards) and 97 year old WR Isaac Bruce slowly slog their way downfield, sink in. You there? It's going to be ugly. Their line remains as faceless as ever, and frankly, their best deep threat is probably underachieving TE Vernon Davis. This certainly seems like the kind of team that could afford to lose a speedy receiver like WR Darrell Jackson. RB Frank Gore is still there, and he played quite well last year considering he probably saw some 11 men in the box defenses last year, if Mike Martz even acknowledges the existence of running backs.

CB Nate Clements did earn his money last year, I watched him repeatedly and was impressed and CB Walt Harris (4.5 sacks, not bad!) was also solid. MLB Patrick Willis led the league in tackles (well someone had to have the ball in those 'niners games). DE Bryant Young also had a revival of sorts with 6.5 sacks but he's like...gone now. Oh. Adding just Bruce to this team is pretty insulting to the 49ers fans.

Schedule: Like St.Louis, the Niners have a horrific start to their schedule, that looks to have the hardest stretch in football to me - @Seattle, Detroit, @New Orleans, New England, Philadelphia, @Giants, Seattle. This is followed by the bye and they will need it, with five of their next seven games on the road, talk about tough.

Prediction: 6-10. While winning five games with that offense was remarkable, it's practically impossible for it to be that bad again, particulary with Martz in charge. For all his flaws, Martz does have a way of getting production from his players. I got so desperate I even flirted with San Francisco as a super sleeper, but no...the offense just has so much improvement to do, it makes Chicago look like the '99 Rams. Only so much improvement can possibly happen in one season, and I expect most of it to be in relatively meaningless games towards the end of the year. I do, however, see a breakout year for Davis and someone, anyone, else, to be under centre by the time all is said and done.